Operationalizing a fisheries social-ecological system through a Bayesian belief network reveals hotspots for its adaptive capacity in the southern North sea.

Fisheries social-ecological systems (SES) in the North Sea region confront multifaceted challenges stemming from environmental changes, offshore wind farm expansion, and marine protected area establishment. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of a Bayesian Belief Network (BN) approach in comprehensively capturing and assessing the intricate spatial dynamics within the German plaice-related fisheries SES. The BN integrates ecological, economic, and socio-cultural factors to generate high-resolution maps of profitability and adaptive capacity potential (ACP) as prospective management targets. Our analysis of future scenarios, delineating changes in spatial constraints, economics, and socio-cultural aspects, identifies factors that will exert significant influence on this fisheries SES in the near future. These include the loss of fishing grounds due to the installation of offshore wind farms and marine protected areas, as well as reduced plaice landings due to climate change. The identified ACP hotspots hold the potential to guide the development of localized management strategies and sustainable planning efforts by highlighting the consequences of management decisions. Our findings emphasize the need to consider detailed spatial dynamics of fisheries SES within marine spatial planning (MSP) and illustrate how this information may assist decision-makers and practitioners in area prioritization. We, therefore, propose adopting the concept of fisheries SES within broader integrated management approaches to foster sustainable development of inherently dynamic SES in a rapidly evolving marine environment.

Evaluation of marine spatial planning requires fit for purpose monitoring strategies.

Marine spatial planning (MSP) has rapidly become the most widely used integrated, place-based management approach in the marine environment. Monitoring and evaluation of MSP is key to inform best practices, adaptive management and plan iteration. While standardised evaluation frameworks cannot be readily applied, accounting for evaluation essentials such as the definition of evaluation objectives, indicators and stakeholder engagement of stakeholders is a prerequisite for meaningful evaluation outcomes. By way of a literature review and eleven practical MSP case studies, we analysed present day trends in evaluation approaches and unravelled the adoption of evaluation essentials for three categories for monitoring and evaluation for plan making, plan outcomes, and policy implementation. We found that at a global scale the focus of MSP evaluation has shifted over the past decade from evaluating predominantly plan outcomes towards the evaluation of plan making. Independent of the scope of the evaluation, evaluation approaches varied greatly from formal and structured processes, building for instance on MSP goals and objectives, to informal processes based on stakeholder interviews. We noted a trend in the adoption of formalised approaches where MSP evaluations have increasingly become linked to MSP policy goals and objectives. However, the enhanced use of MSP objectives and indicators did not result in a more straightforward reporting of outcomes, e.g. such as the achievement of specific MSP objectives. Overall, we found weak linkages between defined MSP objectives, indicators and available monitoring data. While the apparent shift towards a focus on objectives is promising, we highlight the need of fit-for-purpose monitoring data to enable effective evaluation of those objectives. Hence, effective MSP and adaptive management processes require customised and concurrent monitoring and evaluation strategies and procedures. We argue that evaluation processes would also benefit from a better understanding of the general environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural effects of MSP. Therefore, to understand better environmental effects of MSP, we praise that forthcoming MSP processes need to deepen the understanding and considerations of cause-effect pathways between human activities and changes of ecosystem state through the adoption of targeted cumulative effects assessments.

Socio-ecological vulnerability to tipping points: A review of empirical approaches and their use for marine management.

Sustainability in the provision of ecosystem services requires understanding of the vulnerability of social-ecological systems (SES) to tipping points (TPs). Assessing SES vulnerability to abrupt ecosystem state changes remains challenging, however, because frameworks do not operationally link ecological, socio-economic and cultural elements of the SES. We conducted a targeted literature review on empirical assessments of SES and TPs in the marine realm and their use in ecosystem-based management. Our results revealed a plurality of terminologies, definitions and concepts that hampers practical operationalisation of these concepts. Furthermore, we found a striking lack of socio-cultural aspects in SES vulnerability assessments, possibly because of a lack of involvement of stakeholders and interest groups. We propose guiding principles for assessing vulnerability to TPs that build on participative approaches and prioritise the connectivity between SES components by accounting for component linkages, cascading effects and feedback processes.

Risk of recurrent cervical artery dissection during pregnancy, childbirth and puerperium.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Hormonal and mechanical factors might increase the risk for cervical artery dissection (CAD) during pregnancy and the puerperium. There is uncertainty how to counsel women with a previous CAD regarding the risk of CAD recurrence during pregnancy and the puerperium. METHODS: In an observational study of four stroke centers, all women aged 16-45 years with primary CAD in the previous decade were asked to participate in a standardized assessment on long-term follow-up with a special focus on pregnancies and recurrent CAD. RESULTS: Ninety-two women were identified and 53 of them were included in the analysis (60%). Eleven women declined to participate, 28 were untraceable. The 39 non-participants did not differ from participants regarding key baseline characteristics. Average follow-up time was 72 months. Nine women (17%) had recurrent CAD after a median of 14 days (range 2 days to 117 months). Eleven women (20%) had a total of 13 completed pregnancies at a median of 44 months (range 12-84 months) after index CAD. Two of the pregnant women (18%) had suffered recurrent CAD ≥18 months prior to the pregnancy. All 13 pregnancies and puerperia went without recurrent CADs or cerebrovascular events. This includes giving birth by vaginal delivery (n = 6) and caesarean section (n = 7). None of the five women with typical connective tissue disease became pregnant. CONCLUSIONS: Our observation suggests that the risk of recurrent CAD may not be greatly increased with pregnancies starting at least 12 months after CAD in women without typical connective tissue disease.